Europe 2018

EU budget implications of a no-deal Brexit A no-deal Brexit would mean the UK’s contributions to the EU budget fall to zero. Zsolt Darvas calculates the estimated budget shortfall and how the burden would fall across different member states Brexit: blame it on the banking crisis Nicholas Crafts argues that the austerity policies embarked on in response to the fiscal damage resulting from the banking crisis allowed Leave to win the referendum vote How Europe could yet take the lead in the global EV development race The electrification of vehicles has become a key trend in the automotive sector. Simone Tagliapietra and Reinhilde Veugelers consider how Europe might best attempt to catch and overtake other countries in the development race Testing the resilience of Europe’s inclusive growth model Globalisation is placing the European social model under strain. Jacques Bughin and Christopher Pissarides argue that lack of action could make Europe even more vulnerable Between a rock and a hard place European companies are squeezed between US sanctions and the new EU blocking statute. Matthew Oresman and Henrietta Worthington discuss A new vision for trade The Foundation for European Progressive Studies present a vision that can form the core of a new, forward-looking progressive model for trade and investment On populists, immigration and welfare Niek Kok examines the rise of 'right-wing' populism in Europe, and finds that their policies match those of the social democrats of the mid-twentieth century The role of the European Union in fostering convergence Benoît Cœuré focusses on the CESEE economies to explain how completion of EMU can accelerate convergence and foster cohesion in Europe How far can trade policy go in promoting European values? The EU can and should use trade agreements to promote European values but not at the expense of its economic interests, argues Luisa Santos The EU's pivot to Asia Fraser Cameron considers the unforeseen consequences of global uncertainty, and how the EU has seized the opportunity in deepening EU-Asia relations Why is illiberalism on the rise? Daniel Dăianu considers the limits to markets, liberalism and democracy, and finds that the political elites need to change their thinking for liberalism to continue to be a force for good Improving the efficiency and legitimacy of the EU: a bottom-up approach Silvia Merler, Simone Tagliapietra and Alessio Terzi argue for the principle of “an ever closer union” to be safeguarded by a bottom-up approach to respond to the common needs of the citizens Are economic and political freedoms interrelated? Marek Dabrowski argues that in an era of globalisation authoritarian tendencies can negatively affect economic policy and governance New evidence on the economics of immigration to the UK A report by the Migration Advisory Committee draws on new research on the impact of immigration to the UK. Jonathan Portes presents some of the findings from the report Something Putin and Juncker appear to agree on – the euro The US is switching towards unilateralism. Elina Ribakova says this is forcing partners to question the dollar's global dominance The hour of European sovereignty Jean-Claude Juncker says there can be no respite in the work to build a more united, stronger and more democratic Europe One size does not fit all Reforming the governance of the EU has become urgent. Demertzis et al suggest a new model combining a bare-bones EU with a 'Europe of clubs'. What should the EU do about the Turkish currency crisis? The Turkish lira has been under significant pressure in recent weeks. Grégory Claeys and Guntram Wolff discuss the EU’s exposure to possible crisis in Turkey and how the EU should react People on the move: migration and mobility in the European Union Migration is one of the most divisive policy topics in today’s Europe. Uuriintuya Batsaikhan, Zsolt Darvas and Inês Goncalves Raposo assess the immigration challenge facing the EU Revisiting the cost of non-Europe Thierry Mayer, Vincent Vicard and Soledad Zignago consider the gains EU members have reaped from the Single Market and what the costs would be of going backwards European ‘techlash’ or milestone in antitrust enforcement? Cristina Caffarra, Oliver Latham, Matthew Bennett, Federico Etro, Pierre Régibeau and Robert Stillman argue that the European Commission's decision on Google Android has economic merit and falls within established legal precedent Transatlantic relations at a crossroads Jean-Claude Juncker argues that whatever future lies ahead, Europe's partnership with the United States must continue to be a driving force for both sides and for the world The struggle for reforms continues The modernisation of the Ukrainian economy is developing at an unsatisfactory pace. Marek Dabrowski writes that the upcoming elections put the progress under risk Beyond Nord Stream 2: a look at Russia’s Turk Stream project Simone Tagliapietra considers Russia's Turk Stream project and analyses the strategic impacts on Europe Italian populism calls for hard choices The economic agenda of Italian populists is likely to exacerbate Italy’s long-standing problems. Alessio Terzi suggests that if the defenders of the European project want to regain popularity, they will need to present a clear alternative to setting the house on fire Explaining Germany’s exceptional recovery Dalia Marin introduces a new VoxEU eBook that explores how Germany transformed itself from the 'sick man of Europe' to 'economic superstar' How large is the proposed decline in EU agricultural and cohesion spending? Zsolt Darvas and Nicolas Moës consider the next MFF, the gradual convergence of the regions and the reduction in the need for cohesion spending The Eurasian Landbridge and China’s Belt and Road Initiative Richard Pomfret argues that the BRI could be a major step towards Eurasian integration and greatly improve rail’s competitiveness relative to air for time-sensitive shipments The Eurasian Landbridge: linking regional value chains Richard Pomfret looks at the catalyst for the Eurasian Landbridge rail services and its impact on trade costs The myth of Franco-German friendship Ashoka Mody considers the friendship between France and Germany and finds that their national interests have diverged, and that their friendship will not plug the gaps in the euro area architecture Addressing Europe’s infrastructure gaps Adequate infrastructure is essential for growth. Philipp-Bastian Brutscher and Andreas Kappeler consider recent data and find fiscal constraints and planning capacity matter The troubling transformation of the EU Hans Kundnani writes that the EU has already undergone a substantial transformation, but that a rigid focus on 'competitiveness' should give cause for concern What sort of trade deal should the UK negotiate with the EU? Free trade arguments are examined in depth, and Patrick Minford considers the costs and gains should there be no agreement Crowd working and the gig economy: the awakening of a sleeping giant? Werner Eichhorst and Ulf Rinne consider the ongoing changes in the labour market, but say that the massive upheaval and disruption scenarios do not match the evidence A compass to prosperity: the next steps of euro area economic integration The euro area should consider several areas of reforms in the coming months, including a modernized capital markets union, an improved banking union, and the creation of a central fiscal capacity, says Christine Lagarde Trade as an engine of growth: prospects and lessons for Europe Benoît Cœuré discusses the rebound in trade growth, and argues that structural headwinds will make it less likely that trade can expand at the pace seen pre-crisis Trust in the EU? The key obstacle to reform To ensure the viability of monetary union and the EU concrete steps to improve trust are urgently required. Maria Demertzis sets out a three-step roadmap that would help advance trust The euro area economy is shedding the crisis legacies Increasingly fit again. There is scope for solid GDP growth above potential for some time, Marco Buti, Björn Döhring and José Leandro find What is the financial balance of EU membership for central Europe? EU membership has led to huge economic and financial benefits for central Europe, argues Zsolt Darvas Finance and investment: Europe’s lost decade Colin Mayer, Stefano Micossi, Marco Onado, Marco Pagano and Andrea Polo discuss the role of tax and regulatory policy in exacerbating the debt problems in the European Union Does the European Parliament miss an opportunity to reform after Brexit? Robert Kalcik, Nicolas Moës and Guntram Wolff look at the options to achieve equality of representation in the European Union Beyond the Juncker and Schäuble visions of euro area governance Two diametrically opposed versions of the euro area architecture have been proposed. Guntram Wolff identifies new ideas to develop euro area governance Brexit, phase two (and beyond): the future of the EU-UK relationship The trade deal that emerges from phase two of the Brexit negotiations should not be the limit of ambition for future partnership between the EU and the UK, say Maria Demertzis and André Sapir