Enabling digital trade World Commerce Review interview Dr Graham Bright, a leading thinker on the digitalisation of trade, about the challenges that need solving Multilateral trade cooperation Trade and investment policy is increasingly becoming politicised. Bernard Hoekman, Petros Mavroidis and Douglas Nelson present pragmatic suggestions to sustain multilateral trade cooperation Deglobalisation: risk or reality? Globalisation is said to be on the retreat. Martina Di Sano, Vanessa Gunnella, and Laura Lebastard examine the data to see if we are heading towards deglobalisation The impact of artificial intelligence on growth and employment Ethan Ilzetzki and Suryaansh Jain discuss the results of the May 2023 CfM-CEPR survey, where panellists were asked to predict the impact of AI on the global economy How deep trade agreements shape non-trade outcomes Trade agreements include disciplines aimed at achieving non-trade objectives. Ana Margarida Fernandes, Nadia Rocha and Michele Ruta investigate how non-trade disciplines in PTAs affect non-trade outcomes World trade can still drive prosperity New protectionist policies threaten the global economy. Kristalina Georgieva and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala argue that thriving international trade goes hand in hand with global prosperity and stability Britain’s road to Brexit Patrick Minford evaluates the progress being made on the Brexit agenda, focussing on trade, regulation and the EU border The problem with preferential trade agreements Preferential agreements can be an alternative to a sclerotic WTO, but, if multilateral rules fail, they also risk conflict between trading blocs. Uri Dadush and Enzo Dominguez Prost discuss Resilient global supply chains and implications for public policy Supply disruptions during the pandemic raised concerns about supply chains. Cyrille Schwellnus, Antton Haramboure, and Lea Samek consider the resilience of global supply chains Developing Europe’s policy towards China Ursula von der Leyen wants to de-risk, not de-couple trade with China, arguing that trade can remain strong as long as the EU can increase its resilience in some strategic sectors The slow American protectionist turn Pascal Lamy argues that the protectionist shift in US policy is not recent, and can be traced back about 15 years Climate risks and global value chains Extreme weather events will become more frequent as global temperatures rise. Rikard Forslid and Mark Sanctuary analyse the impact of the 2011 Thailand flood on Swedish firms COVID-19 and GVCs Laura Lebastard, Marco Matani and Roberta Serafini examine the impact of COVID-19 supply disruptions on exporters in global value chains Navigating international trade through economic turbulence International trade is returning to pre-pandemic levels, but threats are emerging. Graham Bright discusses potential obstacles to trade Africa’s mineral resources are critical for the green energy transition The UN warns that the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources will have to be ramped up. Danielle Marais discusses the role African mineral resources will have to play in the transition Year in review: the evolution of Russia sanctions in 2022 Russia’s entry into Ukraine set off an unprecedented wave of sanctions and export controls. Nancy Fischer, Steven Farmer and Iris Karaman review the impact on Russia and the global economy Is it now time for industry 4.0? The much anticipated fourth industrial revolution hasn’t happened yet. Richard Markoff and Ralf Seifert discuss the many factors that have slowed the progress of industry 4.0 How Europe should answer the US Inflation Reduction Act Kleimann et al argue that the EU should respond to the Inflation Reduction Act by pursuing broader aims such as a speedy decarbonisation and a broader development policy Is Europe failing on import diversification? Lennard Welslau and Georg Zachmann find that despite a goal of economic self-reliance, the EU’s imports are generally sourced from an increasingly limited set of suppliers Climate versus trade? Reconciling international subsidy rules with industrial decarbonisation. David Kleimann argues that environmental subsidies could be justified To cap or not to cap Simone Tagliapietra, Georg Zachmann and Jeromin Zettelmeyer argue that a EU gas price cap would be counterproductive, but the reasons why it is supported widely must be addressed Pulling the curtain on Russian myth making Nikolai Levin writes behind the Kremlin’s threats and bluster lies a broken country that has never really made it to the 20th century, let alone the 21st The business of government Stephen Morgan discusses how China’s response to the unprecedented zero-COVID protests could affect global business Containing trade These are disruptive, challenging times. Graham Bright considers the role of the container ship in enabling global trade China’s zero-COVID reckoning Kent Matthews considers China’s zero-COVID strategy and illustrates how economic growth may not recover The climate of trade The upward trend in global trade is being compromised. Graham Bright considers the challenges to crossborder trade going forward The West must learn to understand power politics The belief in Western Europe is that European integration and international trade are automatic promoters of peace. Patrick van Schie says much of the world continues to think it is power that counts The impact of AI on the nature and quality of jobs Laura Nurski and Mia Hoffmann argue that policymakers should strengthen the role of social partners in the adoption of AI technology to protect workers Deceiving West and ‘detached’ elites Vladimir Putin portrays Russia as the victim, saying that western sanctions had ‘replaced the pandemic’ as a threat to the world order The perils of unilateralism Simon Evenett and Johannes Fritz consider the latest research and find that commercial policies and regulations now fragment the digital economy A green industrial revolution is coming Many question the usefulness of economic growth, concerned about the environment. Alessio Terzi believes the green transition can usher in prosperity for people and the planet The importance of strategic autonomy in the digital era Society increasingly relies on technology. Wilbert Jan Derksen considers the importance of strategic autonomy in ensuring national security Recovering from COVID Building resilience in select African economies. Conrad van Gass considers the lessons learnt from policy responses prompted by the pandemic Destabilised supply chains Shanghai, the world’s biggest port, is returning to normal. Sarah Schiffling and Nikolaos Valantasis Kanellos argue that despite this supply chains will get worse before they get better How technology is reshaping trade Trade has always been shaped by technology. Robert Atkinson examines how digital technologies are transforming goods and services production Is it time for a new theory to explain crossborder trade? Can we imagine a world without crossborder trade? If not, then we need to know what determines the crossborder flow of products and services, Sanjay Kumar Mangla, Nikita Jain and Richa Gupta discuss Decarbonisation of the energy system Zachmann et al highlight that the current national energy and climate plans (NECPs) of EU countries are insufficient to achieve a cost-efficient pathway to EU wide climate neutrality by 2050 The economic policy consequences of the war Jean Pisani-Ferry says the Ukraine war will have significant impacts on the EU, arising from oil and gas supply shocks, energy independence measures, the inflow of refugees and boosted defence spending India’s commitment to renewable energy India has seen a strong growth in renewable energy. Nirupama Soundararajan and Arindam Goswami discuss India's approach to tackle climate change Trade and the most vulnerable Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala outlines her views on how climate priorities can be addressed through trade actions which prioritise the specific challenges faced by least developed countries Is the post-war trading system ending? Global trade faces many challenges. Uri Dadush argues the post-war system is being transformed into a more complex, politicised and contentious set of trade relationships New wine in new bottles Indian Free Trade agreements have been a mixed bag. Bipul Chatterjee and Sneha Singh consider the modernisation of India’s FTA strategy Opaque and ill-defined Poor governance and transparency creates a risk that competition in the single market will be weakened. Niclas Poitiers and Pauline Weil argue that an overhaul of Europe’s IPCEI subsidy framework is needed A liberal perspective on trade and development Inequality and poverty remain a global reality. Edwin van de Haar considers the benefits of free trade to Sub-Saharan African development International trade, global supply chains and monetary policy Silvana Tenreyro says global supply chains can improve a country’s productivity and income. But the benefits they bring are not evenly spread across sectors The ‘gatekeeper’ dilemma The scope of the Digital Markets Act has emerged as one of the most contentious issues in the regulatory discussion. Mario Mariniello and Catarina Martins assess which companies will be caught by the DMA Climate change mitigation via trade policy There is a need to limit greenhouse gas emissions. André Wolf considers the potential and challenges of environmental protection in trade agreements Free trade under Brexit Many economists have claimed that Brexit would damage the UK economy. Patrick Minford considers the assumptions made and Brexit benefits to the UK have been widely underestimated The EUs carbon border mechanism and the WTO André Sapir argues that to avoid any backlash, the European Union should work with other World Trade Organization members to define basic principles of carbon border adjustment mechanisms Europe’s climate moment of truth Simone Tagliapietra writes that with Fit for 55 Europe is the global first mover in turning a long-term net-zero goal into real-world policies, marking the entry of climate policy into the daily life of all businesses A connectivity game changer Multi-modal connectivity is poised to be a game changer. Arnab Ganguly and Jithin Sabu on how the BBIN is connecting to thrive Pricing of carbon within and at the border of Europe The EU has announced carbon neutrality by 2050 as the key target of the Green Deal. Schmidt et al. argue that the EU should consider a border carbon adjustment mechanism to incentivise other countries to join China and the WTO: two systems meet Petros Mavroidis and André Sapir focus on the build-up to China joining the WTO, and argue that expectations for China’s behaviour were misguided from the start China and the WTO: an uneasy relationship Petros Mavroidis and André Sapir examine the Chinese economic and trading structure, that has continued despite expectations it would liberalise and open up China and the WTO: how can they work together better? The WTO is limited in its ability to shape China's trade policy. Petros Mavroidis and André Sapir consider how the China-WTO relationship can be reformed and improved Much ado about nothing? Fraser Cameron considers the political and economic context of the EU-China investment deal Bracing for the second wave The COVID-19 pandemic has had a severe economic impact on Africa. Cyril Prinsloo and Yulea Roopai consider policy interventions that could play a decisive role in the recovery The geopolitics of the European Green Deal Mark Leonard, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Jeremy Shapiro, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram Wolff consider the geopolitical consequences of the European Green Deal Let the torch of multilateralism light up humanity’s way forward Xi Jinping calls for both greater global efforts in the fight against an unprecedented public health crisis and a renewed commitment to multilateral cooperation Using technology for trade COVID-19 has had a drastic effect on global trade. Graham Bright discusses how technology can boost the recovery Is BRICS past its sell-by date? Despite increasing political differences between members, Elizabeth Sidiropoulos sees a continuing role of the BRICS as the global economy rebalances Can the global recovery be sustained even as the pandemic rages? The global economy is showing signs of recovery from COVID-19 crisis, though the pandemic is accelerating in some countries. Uri Dadush believes trade is part of the solution, not part of the problem
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