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Global Trade 2018

The future of the WTO: cooperation or confrontation There is a danger of further escalation in the tariff war. André Wolf considers protectionism and the future of the World Trade Organization Protectionism was threatening global supply chains before Trump Trump’s protectionism has a distinctive focus on disrupting US access to global supply chains. Chad Brown reveals that major economies had begun additional trade protection prior to 2016 The cost of data protectionism Countries are increasingly imposing new data policies which restricts the flow of data across borders. Martina Ferracane, Janez Kren and Erik van der Marel demonstrate how this creates significant costs for domestic and foreign businesses Global value chains and export elasticities: all linkages matter François de Soyres et al. consider the consequences of international input-output linkages on exchange rate elasticities Improving the efficiency and legitimacy of the EU: a bottom-up approach Silvia Merler, Simone Tagliapietra and Alessio Terzi argue for the principle of “an ever closer union” to be safeguarded by a bottom-up approach to respond to the common needs of the citizens Sustaining momentum in uncertain times The world economy is currently witnessing a strong upswing. Mitsuhiro Furusawa considers policy priorities to maintain momentum The G7 is dead, long live the G7 The Charlevoix summit left behind a Group of Seven in disarray. Jim O'Neill and Alessio Terzi ask if, in a fast-changing world, the G7 is a relic of the past? Resolving the conflict between privacy and digital trade Exports of data-based services by developing countries is threatened by the EU's privacy regulation. Aaditya Mattoo and Joshua Meltzer argue that the way forward is to reflect the EU-US Privacy Shield bargain Trade war: how tensions have risen between China, the EU and the US The multilateral trading system has been challenged by unilateralist measures and subsequent threats of retaliation. Francesco Chiacchio discusses possible scenarios for the EU Cambodia’s ‘buy-a-bride’ trade thrives With an influx of rich Chinese tourists, the safety of Khmer women is being endangered. Deepanshu Mohan examines the growing problem in Cambodia The Eurasian Landbridge and China’s Belt and Road Initiative Richard Pomfret argues that the BRI could be a major step towards Eurasian integration and greatly improve rail’s competitiveness relative to air for time-sensitive shipments The Eurasian Landbridge: linking regional value chains Richard Pomfret looks at the catalyst for the Eurasian Landbridge rail services and its impact on trade costs Global income inequality is declining Income convergence of China and India accounts for the bulk of the decline in global income inequality, Zsolt Darvas finds Minding the gaps to deliver prosperity for Asia Christine Lagarde argues that it is through trade that Asia will transform itself from an importer to an exporter of innovation The consequences of protectionism Protectionism is the wrong solution to address concerns about the distributional effects of globalisation, says Benoît Cœuré, and the EU is the vehicle to make trade more equitable A compass to prosperity: the next steps of euro area economic integration The euro area should consider several areas of reforms in the coming months, including a modernized capital markets union, an improved banking union, and the creation of a central fiscal capacity, says Christine Lagarde Overcoming zero-sum games to sustain growth and globalisation Antonio de Lecea argues that Europe's stance on globalisation is capable of reconciling higher growth with a fairer distribution of income and opportunities A time to share In the euro area, discipline is of the essence, but risk-sharing is no less important, Daniel Dăianu writes Strong aggregate demand: critical for reaping benefits of digitisation Jacques Bughin, Hans-Helmut Kotz and Jan Mischke consider the factors behind the slowdown of productivity growth, and find that aggregate demand needs to be strengthened to benefit from digitisation Monetary policy in the euro area Mario Draghi says that monetary policy still needs to be patient, persistent and prudent, despite improvements in the euro area economy Gold medal brinkmanship: North Korea’s Winter Olympic coup d’état Pyongyang’s Olympic olive branch should be seen as a strategic victory for the regime and a blow to international efforts to wind back its nuclear program, Stephen Nagy writes Trade and investment disputes: the role of economists Marion Jansen, Joost Pauwelyn and Theresa Carpenter explore whether economists can be of use in addressing contentious questions in international trade and investor–state disputes Scaling-up the inclusive growth agenda in the Arab region Christine Lagarde asserts that collective wisdom and collective action is needed to ensure inclusive growth in the Arab region Going beyond the boundaries of justice Deepanshu Mohan reinterprets Hume's Of Justice and argues for a deeper understanding of ethics and values of justice in the modern world Ensuring a sustainable global recovery The key challenge now for China is to ensure that its role generating growth and financing remains on a path that benefits the global economy and itself, David Lipton argues A global architecture for international trade: a collaborative approach Olivier Paul sheds light on the unprecedented changes facing the trade finance industry, and explains how ICC aims to positively shape the global trade landscape Beyond the Juncker and Schäuble visions of euro area governance Two diametrically opposed versions of the euro area architecture have been proposed. Guntram Wolff identifies new ideas to develop euro area governance

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