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Global Trade 2020

An Asia trade war threatens The trade war between the USA and China is ongoing. Abhijit Mukhopadhyay says the Japan-South Korea dispute threatens to further derail international business How to respond to the COVID pandemic The G20’s new year’s resolution should be to finally address COVID-19. John Denton says coordinated action is needed Realising the vision Nirupama Soundararajan and Arindam Goswami consider the huge growth in e-commerce in India and the next steps that policymakers should take to release the potential COVID’s impact on Indian growth and trade The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted great damage to the global economy. Pravakar Sahoo and Ashwani Bishnoi consider the developmental and policy implications for the Indian economy Revitalising multilateralism Simon Evenett and Richard Baldwin introduce a new eBook that presents analyses and ideas on how trade multilateralism can be revived What should Europe expect? America’s trading partners face the question of what the change in leadership, if it occurs, would bring. Uri Dadush and Guntram Wolff consider American trade policy after the election Building the world we want to live in Ursula von der Leyen presents her vision for a Europe that emerges stronger from the pandemic and leads the way towards a new vitality in a world of fragility To thrive in the post-COVID world, Europe needs a Plan B Benjamin Zeeb considers the EU's COVID-19 rescue package and argues that government by consensus rather than majority is not the right method in times of crisis Global value chain transformation to 2030 GVCs have been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis. James Zhan, Richard Bolwijn, Bruno Casella and Amelia U Santos-Paulino consider the overall direction and policy implications of the restructuring of GVCs Inequality lockdown The COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on domestic workers. Deepanshu Mohan, Kensiya Kennedy, Mansi Singh, Shivani Agarwal write that deep-rooted inequality has been exacerbated The impact of GDPR on data flows and national security The CJEU has ruled that the EU-US Privacy Shield is invalid. Joshua Meltzer considers the impact and suggests ways forward Can the global recovery be sustained even as the pandemic rages? The global economy is showing signs of recovery from COVID-19 crisis, though the pandemic is accelerating in some countries. Uri Dadush believes trade is part of the solution, not part of the problem The impact economy: balancing profit and impact Dirk Schoenmaker examines how governments and companies can cooperate in the pursuit of sustainable development Just-in-time supply chains after the COVID-19 crisis Frank Pisch uses the French example to examine the potential effect of COVID-19 on international JIT supply chains A recovery plan for Europe Maarten Verwey, Sven Langedijk and Robert Kuenzel provide a brief overview of the economic rationale for collective action and an assessment of the expected impact of the recovery plan proposed by the Commission Europe’s China problem The European Commission’s White Paper addresses investment screening and state aid, protecting the EU from subsidised foreign acquisitions, Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and Niclas Poitiers discuss Europe's moment The coronavirus has shaken Europe and the world to its core. Ursula von der Leyen presents a recovery plan to repair and prepare for the next generation Chinese and Russian geopolitical games Katarzyna Sidło looks at how China and Russia have exploited the COVID-19 pandemic to improve their international standing in the MENA region Digital connectivity in the Bay of Bengal BIMSTEC members comprises some of the fastest-growing global economies. Bipul Chatterjee and Sidharth Narayan consider the Indian perspective to the region Preparing for the COVID aftermath Sofia Baliño considers the threat of ISDS arbitration against emergency measures, and warns governments to mobilize as they have in the health sphere and apply it to their international investment agreements and policies Reading tea leaves China’s ‘Two Sessions’ gathering announced a large stimulus without a growth target. Alicia García Herrero believes this indicates that China’s recovery is far from complete Rebooting Europe European governments have adopted stringent measures to slow the spread of COVID-19. Julia Anderson, Simone Tagliapietra, and Guntram Wolff present a framework for a post COVID-19 economic recovery The path to integration This crisis is our generation’s Schuman moment, says Christine Lagarde. We have been passed the baton of European integration. And we are being asked to act by strengthening Europe India's lockdown The Indian government has ordered a nationwide lockdown. Debraj Ray, Sreenivasan Subramanian and Lore Vandewalle consider what happens when the state cannot provide back-up welfare measures Next steps in connecting Europe and Asia The EU has set out an ambitious connectivity strategy with Asia. Antti Tulonen argues the priority must be to build on the existing partnership with Japan and seek other like-minded countries in Asia Strategic choices for South Africa’s leadership in 2020 South Africa is a significant actor in Africa. Fred Phaswana says there is an opportunity for South Africa to put into practice its desire to reclaim its prestige and credibility on the continent The trademark ecosystem 2020 The trademark ecosystem is changing. Robert Reading reviews recent research that offers insights into infringement, technology and the shifting trends in brand protection South Africa has a new chance to promote good governance in Africa Cyril Ramaphosa begins his tenure as the chairperson of the APRM. Steven Gruzd writes that this is an opportunity that the country cannot afford to squander How Africa can up its game Yarik Turianskyi considers cybercrime and data privacy, and argues that Africa urgently needs to respond to these challenges A moment of unlimited potential On February 4, 2020, President Donald J Trump delivered his third State of the Union address, saying that Americans must choose whether they are defined by differences or whether they dare to transcend them A trade bargain to secure supplies of medical goods The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the global trading system. Simon Evenett and L Alan Winters propose a method for countries to secure medical supplies COVID concussion Richard Baldwin and Rebecca Freeman consider supply chain contagion waves, and look ahead to manufacturing ‘contagion and reinfection’ from the COVID concussion Brace for impact The global economy has been slowing down for some time. Abhijit Mukhopadhyay considers the gigantic global economic damage the coronavirus pandemic could cause Is the golden age of globalisation over? Alessio Terzi fears that faltering trade growth could be to the detriment of the world’s poorest Strategic choices for South Africa’s leadership in 2020 South Africa is a significant actor in Africa. Fred Phaswana says there is an opportunity for South Africa to put into practice its desire to reclaim its prestige and credibility on the continent US sanctions, the Iranian people and the coronavirus US sanctions are affecting Iran greatly. Leigh Hansson examines how sanctions are delaying the response to the coronavirus pandemic Coronavirus and macroeconomic policy The consensus is that the coronavirus outbreak will cause a shock to the world economy. Luca Fornaro and Martin Wolf develop a model to show that the spread of the virus might cause a demand-driven slump A threat to economic and national security Inadequate data protection affects national security in many ways. Susan Ariel Aaronson examines the responses by the US and the EU The revived centrality of the G20 COVID-19 has wrought economic havoc. Suman Bery and Sybrand Brekelmans consider the return of the G20 as a driver of global economic policy The COVID crisis and productivity growth The world is in the midst of a 15-year-long productivity growth slowdown. Filippo di Mauro and Chad Syverson consider how the COVID crisis might shift the growth rates of productivity and output Globalisation and financial contagion: a history Olivier Accominotti et al suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to a revaluation of the international trade and finance system Future imperfect after coronavirus Following this period of massive fiscal and monetary expansion, Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan ask what will happen when the lockdown gets lifted and recovery ensues? US sanctions, the Iranian people and the coronavirus US sanctions are affecting Iran greatly. Leigh Hansson examines how sanctions are delaying the response to the coronavirus pandemic Biodiversity: what is at stake? Biodiversity loss is a serious risk to business. Aleksandar Rankovic and Juliette Landry review an action agenda to curb biodiversity loss A threat to economic and national security Inadequate data protection affects national security in many ways. Susan Ariel Aaronson examines the responses by the US and the EU Next steps in connecting Europe and Asia The EU has set out an ambitious connectivity strategy with Asia. Antti Tulonen argues the priority must be to build on the existing partnership with Japan and seek other like-minded countries in Asia Poverty reduction in the European Union Europe 2020 includes a poverty reduction target. Zsolt Darvas argues these efforts should not aim at the wrong target indicator The ambitions reshaping the business environment Christine Lagarde describes how the goals of European autonomy and addressing climate risk will shape the business environment in Europe, reiterating the need to work together Do AI markets create competition policy concerns? AI markets are young and their structure is yet to crystallise. Julia Anderson asks is European competition law ready for what happens next? The path to integration This crisis is our generation’s Schuman moment, says Christine Lagarde. We have been passed the baton of European integration. And we are being asked to act by strengthening Europe Towards a European Reconstruction Fund How should Europe respond to the economic crisis? Luis Garicano argues that the Commission issue consolidated annuities to finance a €1 trillion economic reconstruction package An opportunity for change The European Commission has been asked for a recovery fund proposal. Massimo Motta and Martin Peitz see a unique opportunity to develop a truly European programme that helps restructure the EU economy Racing against COVID-19 A long-term solution to COVID-19 includes vaccine development. Reinhilde Veugelers and Georg Zachmann propose a vaccines strategy for Europe to meet the challenge of future pandemics EU state aid policies in the time of COVID-19 Massimo Motta and Martin Peitz suggest imposing strict conditions on the state aid that is needed to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic A green recovery Dirk Schoenmaker argues that governments can attach green conditions to aid to mitigate the COVID-19 crisis and accelerate the green economy

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